The Florida Republican primary will take place this Tuesday and because it’s Florida, we’ll finally have a state that has enough voters and national influence to deserve the attention that it will get.
Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina may attract national attention for their early races, but each of those states loses their influence after the primaries. Florida is one of the only races in a state that remains in the spotlight throughout the presidential campaign.
Because of that influence, we can look for certain stories to come out of the Florida GOP race to potentially affect the race past Super Tuesday in March.
Can Romney Right the Ship?
Ten days before South Carolina, Mitt Romney was the winner of two straight contests and looking to sweep South Carolina. By the time the South Carolina votes were counted, Mitt only had one win in his pocket and had just seen Newt Gingrich rob all of his momentum.
Polls have him ahead in Florida, and the moderate nature of GOP voters in the state should bode well for him. If this primary race can finally go the way Romney expected to, he will regain the momentum and may be able to end the race before Super Tuesday.
While Florida will not end the overall race, the momentum out of the state will be the most powerful of all of the early contests.
What effect will Gingrich’s newest endorsement have on the race?
Rick Perry’s endorsement ended up being a good luck charm for Newt Gingrich in South Carolina. Maybe trying to repeat that same luck, Herman Cain came out for Gingrich in Florida just this last weekend.
Herman Cain was once a significant Flavor of the Week candidate before a rash of accusations of past sexual harassment dogged and then ended his campaign. There may still be voters that can be influenced by Cain’s endorsement, and since he’s from neighboring Georgia, Cain’s southern experience may be handy against a former governor of Massachusetts. However, I don’t expect to see Cain repeat Perry’s stroke of good luck for Gingrich.
Will Florida spell the end for either of the also-rans?
Ron Paul and Rick Santorum can both see the writing on the wall. Neither has campaigned hard in Florida, so it seems that the results from Tuesday may not affect their own view of their respective campaigns. However, Florida is still a major race and a big deal in the overall race to become the nominee.
While Paul and Santorum may have written off Florida on purpose, the results in Florida may help write them off, despite their lack of interest. Since Iowa, neither candidate has made a positive headline. Not showing up in Florida is only going to sink their hopes further and possibly past the point of irrelevance. I understand that saving resources may help Paul and Santorum remain competitive in future states, but not showing up in one of the most relevant states on the trail carries a tremendous amount of risk. Waiting until Super Tuesday to get back in the race may very well be too late.
Florida has been an influential state in Presidential races long before 2000. But since that epic recount, citizens and candidates alike realize that the state is special and a key part of any winning strategy. While that usually pertains to the general election, the remaining GOP candidates may find out this week that it includes the primary season as well.
About The Blogger
– Dominic Dezzutti, producer of the Colorado Decides debate series, a co-production of CBS4 and Colorado Public Television, looks at the local and national political scene in his CBSDenver.com blog. Read new entries here every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Dezzutti writes about federal, state and local matters and how our elected leaders are handling the issues important to Colorado. Dezzutti also produces the Emmy winning Colorado Inside Out, hosted by Raj Chohan, on Colorado Public Television.
